We haven't played with every scenario possible, but it is becoming clear that the easiest path for MSU to claim an at-large bid is for Air Force to win the Atlantic over RIT, and Union to hold serve in the ECAC against Harvard. It seems that no combination in the other games (1st & 3rd place) across the country would harm MSU if Union and Air Force win.
If RIT & Harvard both win, Michigan State will be out.
If some combination of the above happens, it will depend on what else happens across the country. Keep in mind that the 3rd place games do count. There are many different combinations that have MSU in, and many that have MSU out if RIT or Harvard win (but not both).
Sit back, relax, and check the pairwise tomorrow night to see where things stand.