Boston College came into this season ranked #5 in both the USCHO and USA Today preseason polls. Ferris State was unranked in both polls, but they did receive votes in the USCHO poll (#28 overall). This got me thinking, do preseason polls matter?
Going as far back as we could go, on short notice, we looked up the rankings of each Frozen Four team since the 1997-1998 season. The polls seem to show that it helps to be ranked in the top 10, but #1 overall isn't always the best thing. Only one team has won the national title in the same season that they were ranked #1 in either the USCHO or USA Today poll, and that team was the 2002 - 2003 Minnesota Golden Gophers. They took home the top spot in both preseason polls. There are only three other times that the preseason #1 team in either poll even made it to the national title game. North Dakota in the 2000 - 2001 season and Boston College in the 1999 - 2000 season took home the top spot in both preseason polls, they lost in the national title game. Outside of that you have to go to the 2006 - 2007 Boston College Eagles that came in #1 in the USA Today poll, and a co-number one in the USCHO poll.
The worst preseason ranking that still won the national title? The 2003 - 2004 Denver Pioneers came in #13 in the USCHO poll and #12 in the USA Today poll. The 2009 - 2010 edition of Boston College came in at #12 in both polls.
The average preseason rank for the national champion? 6.6
NCAA Champion Preseason Rankings
| Champion | USCHO | USA Today | |||
| 2012 | BC | 5 | 5 | ||
| 2011 | Minnesota-Duluth | 8 | 9 | ||
| 2010 | BC | 12 | 12 | ||
| 2009 | BU | 9 | 10 | ||
| 2008 | BC | 2 | 3 | ||
| 2007 | Michigan St. | 5 | 4 | ||
| 2006 | Wisconsin | 10 | 10 | ||
| 2005 | Denver | 7 | 7 | ||
| 2004 | Denver | 13 | 12 | ||
| 2003 | Minnesota | 1 | 1 | ||
| 2002 | Minnesota | 4 | 3 | ||
| 2001 | BC | 4 | 5 | ||
| 2000 | North Dakota | 4 | 5 | ||
| 1999 | Maine | 8 | 4 | ||
| 1998 | Michigan | 9 | 8 |
Of the last 15 champions, seven of them have been ranked in the top five of the USCHO poll, and eight in the top five of the USA Today Poll. All but two have been ranked in the top ten, and everyone has been ranked in the top 13.
NCAA Runner-Up Preseason Rankings
| Runner-Up | USCHO | USA Today | ||
| 2012 | Ferris St. | 28 | NR | |
| 2011 | Michigan | 15 | 4 | |
| 2010 | Wisconsin | 13 | 14 | |
| 2009 | Miami | 8 | 8 | |
| 2008 | Notre Dame | 8 | 8 | |
| 2007 | BC | 1.5 | 1 | |
| 2006 | BC | 3 | 5 | |
| 2005 | North Dakota | 5 | 3 | |
| 2004 | Maine | 12 | 13 | |
| 2003 | New Hampshire | 4 | 4 | |
| 2002 | Maine | 7 | 10 | |
| 2001 | North Dakota | 1 | 1 | |
| 2000 | BC | 1 | 1 | |
| 1999 | New Hampshire | 11 | 8 | |
| 1998 | BC | 14 | 12.5 |
Six runner-ups have been ranked in the preseason top five of either poll. Eight have been ranked in the top ten of the USCHO poll and 11 in the USA Today Poll. And up until Ferris State, everyone has been ranked.
NCAA Frozen Four Semi-Finalists
| Frozen Four | USCHO | USA Today | ||||
| 2012 | Union | 11 | 11 | |||
| 2011 | North Dakota | 2 | 2 | |||
| 2010 | Miami | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2009 | Bemidji St. | 36 | NR | |||
| 2008 | Michigan | 10 | 10 | |||
| 2007 | Maine | 11 | 11 | |||
| 2006 | Maine | 11 | 11 | |||
| 2005 | CC | 14 | 12 | |||
| 2004 | BC | 3 | 3 | |||
| 2003 | Cornell | 8 | 8 | |||
| 2002 | Michigan | 5 | 4 | |||
| 2001 | Michigan | 2 | 2 | |||
| 2000 | Maine | 2 | 2 | |||
| 1999 | BC | 1 | 1 | |||
| 1998 | New Hampshire | 6 | 6 |
| Frozen Four | USCHO | USA Today | ||
| 2012 | Minnesota | 19 | 16 | |
| 2011 | Notre Dame | 17 | 16 | |
| 2010 | RIT | 29 | NR | |
| 2009 | Vermont | 20 | NR | |
| 2008 | North Dakota | 1 | 1 | |
| 2007 | North Dakota | 6 | 7 | |
| 2006 | North Dakota | 7 | 6 | |
| 2005 | Minnesota | 6 | 8 | |
| 2004 | Minnesota-Duluth | 15 | 15 | |
| 2003 | Michigan | 3 | 2 | |
| 2002 | New Hampshire | 10 | 11 | |
| 2001 | Michigan St. | 5 | 4 | |
| 2000 | St. Lawrence | 12 | 10 | |
| 1999 | Michigan St. | 5 | 5 | |
| 1998 | Ohio St. | NR | NR |
11 of the 30 semi-finalists were ranked in the top five. 19 of the 30 semi-finalists were ranked in the top 10 in at least one of the two major polls. This means 11 of the 30 semi-finalists were ranked outside of the top 10.
The 1997 - 1998 Ohio State Buckeyes hold the honor of the only team since the 97-98 season to reach the Frozen Four without receiving a single preseason vote in either major poll. Vermont, RIT, Bemidji State, and Ferris State all were teams in the USA Today poll that didn't receive a vote in the preseason poll, but still managed to reach the Frozen Four.
So what does this tell us?
Well, it's only logical to think that if you receive a lot of preseason votes, you are expected to be good. In the end, the teams that get the votes are there in the Frozen Four. And even though the hockey polls can get made fun of with how they react some weekends, they show they are in the ballpark before anyone even plays a game.
The question becomes, how long until someone outside of the top 13 wins a title?
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