Bubblicious: Maine Helps Reignite Michigan State's NCAA Hopes

The Michigan State Spartans might be disappointed with their weekend in the CCHA Quarterfinals, but thanks to Maine's defeat of Merrimack tonight, the Spartans NCAA at-large hopes increased - significantly.

Now, let me be perfectly clear, Michigan State still does need help. As of right now, MSU is 14th in the PWR, tied with Western Michigan. MSU still holds a slim .0012 edge in the RPI over Western Michigan. The Broncos, if they beat Miami next Friday at Joe Louis Arena, will more than likely pass MSU which would put MSU down to 16 comparisons and tied with Northern Michigan for 15th place. MSU holds the comparison over Northern, which means Michigan State will be in the NCAA tournament provided nothing crazy happen this upcoming weekend. And, Western may actually fall back behind MSU should they lose in the CCHA title game.

Given that the Atlantic Hockey Champion will be outside the top 16 of the Pairwise, Michigan State will need to hold the 14th or 15th spot in the Pairwise to have a shot at an at-large bid.

So, who can still spoil Michigan State's fun? Updated!!

Atlantic: RIT. Although it will take a combination of other teams to win their conference tournament (such as RIT & WMU), but RIT winning the Atlantic potentially could burst MSU's bubble as well. MSU should be ok if RIT wins though and the other favorites win out. (WARNING: The pairwise predictor is very addicting)

CCHA: Bowling Green. The Falcons stunned Ferris State tonight in game 3, after falling behind 3-0. They'll face Michigan next weekend. If they spring the upset in that game, MSU fans better hope Miami or Western beats Bowling Green in the CCHA title game. Though, if BGSU did beat Western, the Broncos may end up falling back behind MSU and making all of this a moot point. But, not getting sidetracked, it'd be better if BGSU didn't win the CCHA tournament. Unlikely, but they've gotten this far - and now they don't have to beat the same team twice. And we will add Western Michigan to this list, since it seems that any combination of Western winning and one of the other teams on the list could be very bad for MSU. Western does have to face Miami though - and it stands to note that Western doesn't pass MSU in the pairwise if they beat Miami and then lose to Michigan. However, they would if they lost to Miami then beat Michigan in a 3rd place game.

ECAC: Harvard is currently ranked in a tie for 20th in the PWR. Colgate is currently ranked 25th. If either team wins the conference tournament that will move the at-large line up from 15 to 14. MSU just became huge Cornell & Union fans. This will be the conference tournament to watch. Colgate actually looks like it'd be worse than Harvard. If Colgate wins, MSU will be out (NMU will jump MSU in the comparisons). If Harvard wins, MSU could be in (and actually move up to 13th in the pairwise) depending on what else happens. MSU could still be out though if WMU manages to split and Harvard wins the ECAC.

Hockey East: Providence. The 7th seed in the Hockey East tournament shocked Mass.-Lowell this weekend. They'll have to get by #1 Boston College in the semi finals and then either Maine or BU in the title game to move that at-large line up a spot. Unlikely, but they've gotten this far (see BGSU).

WCHA: A couple here (Thanks to Denver). Michigan Tech and St. Cloud State are the two to watch - but it'll take three wins in three days for either team to do it. St. Cloud State and Tech cannot pass MSU if they advance to the finals and lose - so only them winning the automatic bid looks bad for MSU.

To recap: Bowling Green, Providence, Harvard, Colgate, RIT, St. Cloud State, and Michigan Tech are all potentially Michigan State bubble bursting teams. A couple of websites - College Hockey News & USCHO.com will have a 'be the committee' feature as early as tomorrow - so you can play with the results and see where MSU would finish.

In the meantime, MSU fans can enjoy tonight - and celebrate with our friends from Maine.

Thank you Maine, no hard feelings for 2007 - ok? Thanks to you, we can exhale a little bit, for now, and dream of what an improbable NCAA might bring.....Let the scoreboard watching continue next weekend!

Monday Musings.....

Don't pay any attention to the elephant in the room.

Even though the INCH.com power rankings bring it up

How long has it been since the Spartans have won a CCHA playoff series? Long enough that the team they beat in the league quarterfinals back in 2007 (Nebraska-Omaha) is no longer part of the conference.

Think about that statement. MSU hasn't won a CCHA playoff series since 2007. I guess that means if MSU wins this weekend, we can start planning a parade in April! No? Oh, ok....

That factoid has made an apperance on this blog before, because I just can't get enough of it. I didn't believe it at first, but I got to thinking, and it really is true.

In 2008, Michigan State hosted Northern Michigan but lost in three games. I don't remember much from this game, but the late goal by Sucharski to send it into OT does ring a bell. The fact that Northern won on a power play in overtime in the third game of the series makes me chuckle. Gotta love the CCHA stripes. Michigan State still made the NCAA tournament this year, the last time they did. In fact, MSU was tied 1-1 with Notre Dame in the West Regional Final with 6 minutes to go in regulation, before the Irish tallied two goals 74 seconds apart.

In 2009, Northern Michigan swept MSU out of the CCHA First Round in Marquette. The most amazing thing about this series is that Jeff Lerg gave up 13 goals in two games to end his Spartan career, including 8 in the final game. That wasn't the way anyone expected the Lerg era to end at MSU. Though, I still remember Ryan Miller giving up a goal from center ice once during his career at MSU.

In 2010, the Spartans improved to a second place finish in the CCHA, but faced a red-hot rival from Ann Arbor that swept MSU at Munn. The losses knocked MSU far enough down in the PairWise to keep MSU out of the tournament.

In 2011, MSU was faced with the tough task of travelling out to Fairbanks. The Spartans battled hard but lost a pair of heart breaking overtime games to the Nanooks. The second one came in double overtime at what was about 2:30 am in East Lansing.

And now in 2012, MSU is faced with another tough task heading down to Oxford, a team that was 11-5-2 at home this season. They are 12-4 in 2012, and they swept MSU back in January. Miami finished 1 point ahead of MSU for home ice. In fact, had MSU survived the overtime in the first meeting this year, MSU would have earned home ice over Miami even if Miami won the shoot-out. Had that happened, MSU would have had 48 points to Miami's 47.

The second game Miami won 4-0 in large part to out-shooting MSU 35-12 over the final two periods, including a 20-5 margin in the final period. Despite all that, the game was only 1-0, and that one goal was on a two man advantage.

The good news is Miami is on its spring break this weekend, so there are still quite a few tickets available for the weekend series - should any Spartan fans fancy a trip down to Oxford. It is a nice place to watch a game, and who knows what any green & white crowd support could do to lift MSU. The Spartans aren't afraid to play on the road though, and as long as they battle hard, this should be a tight series.

I haven't seen any TV listed yet for this series. My guess is Comcast & FSD will be focused on Ann Arbor since it is closer to Detroit with Notre Dame travelling to Ann Arbor. In the meantime the games will be on the radio this weekend, and I don't think there will be any conflicts with the Big 10 basketball tournament since MSU should be playing during the day there.

In the meantime, we'll continue to bring you coverage as Michigan State looks to address that elephant in the room.

CCHA Quarters are set, MSU now 12th in Pairwise

LSSU and Notre Dame swept their respective series this weekend, and Bowling Green repeated history knocking off 6th seeded Northern Michigan for the second straight year in two games. As a result, we will have the following for the CCHA quarterfinals best of 3 series:

#11 Bowling Green at #1 Ferris State
#8 Notre Dame at #2 Michigan
#7 LSSU at #3 Western
#5 Michigan State at #4 Miami

These four series all could be something to see, but the two that could be more interesting than any other will be Notre Dame-Michigan and Michigan State-Miami. The Irish have been playing better over the last few weeks, and Michigan has had some consistency problems this year (just like anyone else). It'll be tough for Notre Dame to win two games, but they should make Michigan work for it.

And of course we have our own series. Health could be an issue for the Spartans if Merrifield isn't 100%. But one thing MSU fans have been able to count on is this team will make the other team work for it. Miami may have swept the season series, but Michigan State was in both games. MSU lost the first game in overtime, and the second game was 1-0 going into the 3rd period before Miami blew it open.

Northern fell to 16th in the Pairwise which will suggest they are out of the NCAA tournament now. Michigan State remained in 12th after this weekend - so it still looks like MSU may need to beat Miami to assure themselves a NCAA tournament bid.

Here is the latest projection through this weekend - MSU a 3 seed out east

If you are a Spartan fan - it is simple.... Win and you are in. It won't be easy this weekend down in Oxford, but if the "hard hat wearing" Spartans show up, it should be a battle, and it is one that MSU can win.

We'll have more throughout the week as we approach the weekend series.

The NCAAs.....

After last night, Michigan State ended in a tie for 12th in the PairWise rankings, a tool that mimics the NCAA selection process. Michigan State was tied with Minnesota, but won the comparison, so MSU would be the 12th seed in the NCAA tournament (or the last #3 seed).


Based on this projection, MSU would face Boston College in St. Paul

At first glance, that is one heck of a bracket. Michigan, the top seed, would have to deal with Minnesota who would be playing a home game. Michigan State would have to face a tough Boston College team for the second time this year. Four big time programs in the same regional. That would be a tough hill to climb, but let's face it, most MSU fans would be happy just being in the tournament this year given how last season went.

Most of us thought MSU would be improved, but now the Spartans are in position to be in the top 4 of the CCHA as well as a NCAA tournament team, and as the 2007 Spartans showed - you just need to get in to win. Who would want to face MSU in the tournament at this point? The Spartans would be a very dangerous team.

So, what would it take for MSU to get there? At first glance, MSU would be in pretty good position if they earned 9 of their final 12 points, and won a series in the CCHA tournament. The assumption here is MSU would be at the Joe. The only drawback there might be that MSU has to win at least a game at the Joe (at least the 3rd place game).

It's certainly an exciting time of year to be a Spartan hockey fan. Coach Anastos and company has this team playing very well right now.