Thanksgiving Hangover - Recap

Michigan State may have enjoyed the weekend off, but there was action across the country, and the CCHA.

Around The CCHA

 

Ohio State at LSSU. The Buckeyes come to East Lansing this weekend, but this past weekend they were at the Soo and earned a three point split. The Buckeyes controlled Friday's action 4-1, but the Lakers responded with a 3-2 victory the next night.

Alaska at Northern. The Nanooks made the long trip back to Michigan this week to take on the reeling Wildcats. Northern Michigan took five out of a possible six points this past weekend though winning 4-3 in overtime on Friday night and winning in a shoot-out on Saturday.

North Dakota at Notre Dame. The Irish split a big non-conference series this past weekend dropping a 2-1 contest on Friday and dominating Saturday night with a 5-2 victory.

Bowling Green at Michigan (Wednesday). Michigan ended their losing streak on Wednesday with a 3-1 victory over Bowling Green.

Michigan vs. Cornell (New York, NY). Cornell dominated Michigan 5-1 at Madison Square Garden on Saturday.

CCHA Standings

	GP	W	L	T	SOW	Points	Total Points Possible
Miami	8	4	2	2	2	16	76
Notre Dame	6	5	1	0	0	15	81
Ferris State	8	5	3	0	0	15	75
Ohio State	8	4	2	2	1	15	75
Alaska	10	4	4	2	0	14	68
LSSU	8	4	4	0	0	12	72
Western Michigan	6	3	2	1	1	11	77
Michigan	9	3	5	1	1	11	68
Michigan State	8	3	4	1	0	10	70
Northern Michigan	10	2	5	3	1	10	64
Bowling Green	9	1	6	2	1	6	63

Games This Week:

Friday:

Michigan at Ferris State
Ohio State at Michigan State
LSSU at Notre Dame
Miami at Alaska
Northern Michigan at Western Michigan

Saturday:

Michigan at Ferris State
Ohio State at Michigan State
LSSU at Notre Dame 
Miami at Alaska
Northern Michigan at Western Michigan


Nothing but true home series this weekend (no home & home). Miami making the long trip west could be interesting, as Alaska has to be desperate for points after a poor showing in Marquette. Notre Dame is looking to get back to their winning ways in the CCHA - and potentially take over first place. Michigan is trying to find some answers as they play a team that they've historically done very well against - but it's on the road (Michigan has yet to win away from Yost). The Spartans host Big 10 rival Ohio State. Overall, Ohio State hasn't done well in East Lansing. Bowling Green is off this weekend - so they will remain in last place.

CCHA Power Rankings

1. Notre Dame (9-3-0, LW: 1). The Irish picked up a good split this week against North Dakota.

2. Miami (7-2-3, LW: 2). Miami enjoyed the weekend off - now they make the long trip out west.

3. Western Michigan (6-3-1, LW: 3). The Broncos welcome Northern Michigan to town.

4. Ferris State (6-4-2, LW: 4). The Bulldogs look to make a statement against Michigan.

5. Ohio State (5-4-3, LW: 5). The Buckeyes face a tough test in East Lansing this week.

6. Alaska (6-5-3, LW: 5). The Nanooks look to rebound against one of the league's best.

7. LSSU (7-7-0, LW: 7). Any takers on when LSSU sweeps their first weekend series? Or gets swept?

8. Northern Michigan (5-6-3, LW: 10). NMU basically got what they needed at home, but can they carry that over to Kalamazoo?

9. Michigan State (4-6-2, LW: 8). The Spartans look to get back on track this week.

10. Michigan (5-7-1, LW: 9). A much needed win against Bowling Green was followed up by one of their worst efforts of the season. Michigan's NCAA streak may be in jeopardy - but there is still time to turn things around.

11. BGSU (2-9-3, LW: 11). A much needed weekend off as the Falcons look to get something going in December.

Big Ten Power Rankings

1. Minnesota (9-2-2, LW: 1). The Golden Gophers dominated in Vermont over the holiday.

2. Ohio State (5-4-3, LW: 2). A Big 10 showdown this weekend.

3. Michigan State (4-6-2, LW: 4). Spartans only have 8 true road games left on the schedule.

4. Penn State (6-5-0, LW: 3). Reality check: Union sweeps Penn State 2-0, 4-1. An exhibition series against Arizona State (club) gives them a chance to fine tune some things.

5. Michigan (5-7-1, LW: 5). They might be better than the three teams in front of them in these rankings, but they aren't playing like it.

6. Wisconsin (1-7-2, LW: 6). Panic in Madison? Maybe if they get swept in Denver.


PairWise Rankings - It's Always Too Early

Yes, it's too early to look at these rankings, but we're going to anyways..... The only day these rankings matter is after the last conference tournament is played in March.

The Top 16

1. Boston College
2. New Hampshire
3. Dartmouth
4. Denver University
5. Yale
6. Union
7. Boston University
8. Notre Dame
9. Miami University
10. Minnesota
11. North Dakota
12. Quinnipiac
13. Harvard
14. Western Michigan
15. Niagara
16. St. Cloud State

Other CCHA Schools:

24. Ferris State
25. Alaska
27. Ohio State

 The CCHA only has three schools (ND, Miami, WMU) in the top 16. That's not good for a conference expected to be one of the best. Though, one could point to all the conference splits as a potential reason. The conference needs to do a good job in its remaining non-conference games to really help out their own RPI and PWR. Keep in mind only teams with an RPI of .5000 or better are considered. Ohio State is right on the cliff at .5071 right now. On the flip side, Northern Michigan (.4936) and LSSU (.4909) aren't far behind. Michigan is 35th at .4887, and the Spartans are 39th at .4730. In case you're curious, Sacred Heart (0-10-2) at .3191 is the worst rated RPI D-I team. Bowling Green is 50th (out of 59) and the worst rated CCHA team. Wisconsin is tied for 55th - the worst rated Big Ten school.

Interesting to look at, but just to look. Don't touch. You'll have to wait for March for that.

Spartans Clinch First NCAA Bid Since 2008

By the smallest of margins, Michigan State looks to be the final at-large team in the NCAA field. MSU ends the 2011-2012 season in a tie for 15th place in the Pairwise with Northern Michigan and Merrimack.

The first tiebreaker is actually the head to head comparisons (not RPI). MSU wins the comparison over Northern. Northern wins it over Merrimack, and Merrimack wins it over MSU. This means everyone is 1-1, so that is why we fall back to the RPI.

MSU   .5354
NMU  .5307
Merrimack  .5300

Merrimack thus is eliminated since they have the lowest RPI, and we fall back to the comparisons which MSU beats Northern, so MSU is the last team in. Even if you just use the straight RPI as the tiebreaker, MSU is in with the highest RPI.

All of this is possible due to Air Force winning the Atlantic Conference over RIT tonight and Union holding serve in the ECAC.

So TMM would like to salute the Air Force Academy - not only for their hard work in defending our country and protecting our freedom, but for (obviously) more selfishly, helping MSU out tonight.

Sorry Union - didn't find your fight song on You Tube...... But thank you anyways!!!

So, the Spartans will be heading to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2008. It looks like MSU will be headed to Worcester (vs. #1 overall seed Boston College) or Bridgeport (vs. #3 overall seed Union). We will be breaking down the tournament field and selection process this week - since it should be interesting to see how the bracket falls. The selection show is on ESPNU & ESPN3 at Noon Eastern.

It's been a heck of a season so far for the Spartans, coming off such a disappointing 2010 - 2011 campaign. And it looks like there is still one more weekend left - with the possibility of more. And at least one more weekend where Torey Krug will put on the green & white sweater.

Spartans CCHA Season Ends

The Spartans hung tough tonight, but once again the second period doomed Michigan State as Miami exploded for three more goals in the middle period to break open a 1-1 tie and earn the two game sweep over Michigan State. The defeat was Michigan State's 10th straight in the CCHA playoffs.

The loss also puts Michigan State's NCAA hopes on life support. Michigan State currently sits in a tie for 14th in the Pairwise with Western Michigan (who beat LSSU tonight to advance to Joe Louis Arena). The Spartans hold a slim .0011 edge in the RPI, and it's that edge that might help get MSU into the NCAA tournament.

Michigan State needs to remain no worse than 15th in the Pairwise to have a shot. Only the Atlantic Hockey Champion will be guaranteed to be outside the top 16 in the PWR, so that will eliminate the team that sits in 16th for an at-large bid (currently Northern Michigan). Should another upset happen, and someone outside the top 16 of the PWR win their conference tournament, that will move the elimination line up to 15th - which right now is Western Michigan. Western, with one win next week, probably will pass Michigan State. If Ferris State beats Bowling Green tomorrow, Western will face Michigan next Friday in the semi-final. If BGSU pulls off the upset, Western will face Miami.

Torey Krug ended the scoring drought tonight against Knapp with a power play goal in the first period. That stopped the streak at 175:28 which dated back to the first period of the first game between the two teams this season.

In the end, Miami was just too much for Michigan State. The RedHawks are very talented, well coached, and they are playing their best hockey of the season right now. This all means they will be a tough out next weekend at the Joe and in the NCAA tournament (they might be a #1 seed).

If Michigan State doesn't make the NCAA tournament, all eyes will turn to Krug to see if he will remain in East Lansing for another season. No one could blame him for testing the NHL waters right now, as his stock has grown quite a bit over the last two years. If he adds the POY award this week, then it might never be higher. While it would be great to see him back in East Lansing for his final season, it's tough to say 'no' to what could be coming his way.

In the end, I think most MSU fans will be satisfied with the positive step forward the program took this season. Most people thought MSU would be fighting to get home ice in the first round of the CCHA tournament, yet they managed to get a first round bye. With Coach Anastos, Miller, and Newton behind the bench, the program has regained focus, and things appear to be looking up here in East Lansing.

In the meantime, we'll be looking up at the scoreboards for the remainder of this weekend and next. We'll break down what needs to happen from here on out for MSU to potentially get one of the last at-largeg NCAA bids. And that would be a great reward for a team that has worked so hard to get things right this season.

Miami Dominates Spartans 6-0

For a team looking to end an eight game losing streak in the CCHA tournament, it was key to get off to a quick start, especially on the road against a very talented team. It didn't happen. The Spartans will have to try again tonight, as it took all of 12 seconds into the game to score. That was all Miami needed.

Michigan State did settle down and put together a decent period on the road getting a few chances, but nothing that ended up behind Miami goalie Connor Knapp. The shots in the opening period were 13-11 in favor of Miami.

Then came the second period - what might have been the longest period of the season for MSU. Miami tallied four goals on 13 shots to blow the game wide open. Miami added a power play goal in the final period. Jimmy Mullin had a huge game scoring twice and adding two assists. Reilly Smith & Austin Czarnik added two assists of their own.

Miami out-shot MSU 39-27 for the game. Miami was 1-4 on the power play, and Michigan State was 0-6. Yanakeff stopped 21 of 26 shots, and Drew Palmisano came out in the final period stopping 12 of 13 shots.

Game Two is tonight at 7:05 pm.

Scary Stat Number One:

This game marked the 9th straight CCHA play-off defeat for Michigan State. The last time Michigan State won a CCHA play-off game was all the way back on March 14, 2008. That was the first game of the CCHA quarterfinals against Northern Michigan. Northern went on to win the series in three games.

Scary Stat Number Two:

 There is a monster in goal, and it's not just because he stands 6-6. Last night's shutout marked the second straight shutout for Miami against Michigan State and for Connor Knapp. Michigan State now has not scored on Connor Knapp since the 18:00 mark of the first period in the first game of the weekend series in January. That means MSU now has a 162 minute (exactly) scoreless streak against Miami and Connor Knapp.

 

Is now the time to panic for Spartan fans?

Not yet. The good news is today is a new day. If Michigan State wins tonight, they will force the decisive third game tomorrow night. They also will help keep their NCAA hopes off of life support (MSU currently is ranked 14th in the PairWise). The question now will become who starts in goal tonight, and where Yanakeff's confidence level is. Also, it will absolutely be huge for Michigan State to score the first goal and end that long scoreless streak.

USCHO.com recap - if you can stomach it

LSJ.com Recap

Around the CCHA:

There were some exciting games around the CCHA last night.  Bowling Green stunned Ferris State in overtime 3-2. The Falcons tied the game at two with inside 3 minutes to go in regulation. The game winner was tallied 17:18 in the first overtime. Ferris State out-shot BGSU 56-34. 

In Ann Arbor, Michigan needed double overtime to defeat Notre Dame 2-1. The Irish tied the game up with 8:37 to go in regulation. Michigan's Chris Brown scored 3:11 into the second overtime period. 

Western Michigan survived a tough scare against LSSU 4-2. The Lakers pulled within one with 4:24 to go in regulation, but they could not get the equalizer. and Western added an empty netter with just seconds to go in the game. 

The PairWise & CCHA

T-3. Michigan

T-3. Ferris State

T-6. Miami

14. Michigan State

15. Western Michigan

16. Northern Michigan

18. Notre Dame

20. LSSU

The Spartans may not be able to survive a sweep - so tonight's game is critical to extend the season not only for the obvious CCHA tournament but for the NCAA tournament as well.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch - Michigan State's At-Large Chances

Michigan State will be coming into this weekend's play ranked 12th in the Pairwise. The Pairwise mimics the selection process for the NCAA hockey tournament. The key, with 5 automatic bids, is to earn an at-large spot you will need to be at least  ranked 15th in the Pairwise. 15th will only work if there are no surprise champions. If you are ranked 11th or better, you are a lock for the tournament since only 5 auto bids are handed out (12th - 16th in the PWR would be eliminated if all five were from teams that aren't ranked in the top 16 of the PWR).

MSU has 19 comparison wins: Miami, North Dakota, Cornell, Northern Michigan, Western Michigan, Notre Dame, CC, LSSU, Ohio State, Harvard, Quinnipiac, Wisconsin, St. Cloud State, Colgate, Bemidji State, Northeastern, Air Force, UMass, and New Hampshire.

Right now 17 comparison wins gets you in the top 15 of the PWR. The comparison wins refer to your overall comparison with each team that is considered a TUC (i.e. .500 or better in the RPI). MSU is considered better than 19 of the 30 other teams in this ranking.

If MSU were to lose just 4 comparisons they currently are winning, MSU would be knocked out of the tournament. Let's examine the 19 and which ones MSU fans should be concerned about.

The Locks:

The record indicated refers to the comparisons won vs. lost with each team.

New Hampshire (2-0) - Barring an epic RPI collapse from MSU and a huge gain by UNH (MSU leads by .0467), MSU wins this comparison no matter what.

UMass (2-1) - Even though it's only 2-1, UMass cannot improve on any of the factors barring a huge collapse by MSU in the RPI (and I don't think getting swept by Miami will change it that much). The only way this comparison flips is if UMass wins the Hockey East Tournament - as the #8 seed - and they would get the auto bid which would move our at-large line up from 15 to 14.

Air Force (3-0) - MSU leads in all categories and none of them can flip.

Northeastern (2-1) - Even if MSU gets swept by Miami, MSU holds this comparison since Northeastern didn't qualify for the Hockey East playoffs.

Bemidji State  (3-0) - Unless the RPI swings widly enough, this won't flip even if Bemidji sweeps North Dakota (or wins the series). The only way this completely flips is if Bemidji wins the WCHA tournament and MSU is swept this weekend by Miami. If Bemidji were to take an auto bid, that would move our at-large line up in the Pairwise.

St. Cloud State (2-1). This one looks like it is a lock no matter what, but strange things could happen should St. Cloud State run into Minnesota & North Dakota (beat them both) in the WCHA Final Five, and MSU loses to Western Michigan. I still don't think that'll be enough to flip the common opp's comparison, and if MSU gets that far, the RPI will stay in MSU's corner (not to mention MSU probably will pass some other teams in the Pairwise).

Wisconsin (3-0). This one looks similar to the St. Cloud State one, only Wisconsin would need to flip 2 comparisons instead of one. The TUC comparison looks like it could flip easily with a long WCHA run for Wiscy and if Miami wins the series against MSU. But even then, Common Opps and RPI would still probably stay in MSU's corner.

Quinnipiac (3-0). This is where MSU fans become HUGE Quinnipiac fans this weekend. They face Colgate (see below). If Quinnipiac were able to upset Colgate, it would keep that comparison in MSU's corner and this one would stay no worse than 2-1.

Ohio State (5-2). No chance for this to flip even if MSU were swpet by Miami. At worst it'd be 4-2 if that were to happen.

Northern Michigan (4-2). This can't change even if MSU is swept this weekend. At worst it'd be 3-3 with MSU having the RPI tiebreaker.

The Almost Locks:

Harvard (2-0). This one makes me nervous simply because if Harvard makes a long enough run in the ECAC tournament, they could swing the RPI factor (though MSU holds a .0321 edge), which would be the tiebreaker should Harvard earn enough wins against TUC's in their conference tournament (looks like only 1 will be needed) and MSU were swept this weekend.

LSSU (4-2). This one might be able to get flipped should LSSU beat MSU at Joe Louis Arena in the CCHA tournament, but at that point, I think the TUC's would remain strongly in MSU's corner, as well as the common opp's. The only thing that would make me nervous is if the RPI (.221 edge in favor of MSU) were to flip in that case.... That would cause the comparison to go to 4-3 LSSU.

Colorado College (3-0). If CC sweeps Tech, then beats Minnesota and North Dakota at some point in the WCHA tournament, and MSU were swept by Miami, I think I'd be nervous with this comparison. The TUC in that situation would flip to CC causing MSU to hold a slim 2-1 edge. The Common Opps and RPI would come into play at that point - though MSU looks like they'd still hold an edge in the common opp's category.



The Swing Comparisons:

Colgate (2-1) - If Colgate were to sweep Quinnipiac, and Quinnipiac remains above .500 in the RPI (currently .5128), and MSU were to get swept by Miami, this comparison would flip and Colgate would win it - knocking MSU one step closer to being out of the tournament. If MSU were to be eliminated in 3 games, the Spartans would still win the overall comparison. A semi-final (or 3rd place game victory) by Colgate would swing it back into their corner.

Notre Dame (3-2) - If the Irish advance further than MSU then start pulling hard for anyone who plays Notre Dame. The TUC would flip into ND's corner if the Irish advance further than MSU plus they win that next game. A head to head match-up that the Irish win would finish this comparison off for the Irish. Though again at that point, MSU might be a lock given they are at the Joe (the only way a head to head meeting would be possible).

Western Michigan (3-2) - Western already holds the TUC & Common Opps category, so MSU can't lose those. At that point this would come down to a head to head meeting at the Joe - if Western wins, they might pass MSU - depending on how the RPI falls. At best MSU would be 3-3 with the RPI tiebreaker in that situation. I almost have this one in the lock column - if MSU wins once against Miami, I think it will become a lock. That October (?) sweep is HUGE.

Cornell (1-1). - RPI holds the key, as long as MSU holds the edge, MSU wins the comparison. Right now the Spartans hold a slim .0099 edge. Cornelll plays Dartmouth this weekend. In theory, if MSU were swept and Cornell sweeps Dartmouth, MSU could lose this comparison.

North Dakota (2-1) - The slim .0034 RPI edge keeps MSU ahead in this comparison. MSU can't lose TUC this weekend, but they certainly can lose the RPI comparison. A Bemidji State upset would help seal the deal for MSU.

Miami (3-2) - This one is simple. Miami wins the series - they win the comparison. MSU holds the edge in RPI, TUC, and Common Opps. if Miami wins twice, they swing the RPI comparison and get 2 points in the head to head comparison giving them a huge 5-2 edge in the overall comparison. Even if MSU wins once, that still will give Miami a 5-3 edge. A Spartan series win will keep the comparison in MSU's corner.




Final Thoughts:

It is looking like Michigan State has 13 total comparisons pretty much locked up. This means MSU would need 3-4 more locked up (of the 6 toss-ups) to put them in the 14-15 position in the PairWise and likely in the NCAA tournament. This is why MSU is not a lock at this point, and this is why a trip to Joe Louis would pretty much seal the deal up. Though as I mentioned above, a couple of those "swing comparisons' could already be in MSU's corner regardless of what happens. That would put MSU in the 15-16 comparison range which would be good enough to get in provided the favorites win the conference tournaments. Should MSU lose in three games, it might be enough to get them in regardless of what happens elsewhere.

The Merrimack comparison that MSU is losing (Merrimack is ranked T-14th) won't swing in MSU's favor unless MSU beats Miami & Merrimack doesn't have a good Hockey East Tournament.

So it's simple for MSU at this point: Win and you are in.

CCHA Quarters are set, MSU now 12th in Pairwise

LSSU and Notre Dame swept their respective series this weekend, and Bowling Green repeated history knocking off 6th seeded Northern Michigan for the second straight year in two games. As a result, we will have the following for the CCHA quarterfinals best of 3 series:

#11 Bowling Green at #1 Ferris State
#8 Notre Dame at #2 Michigan
#7 LSSU at #3 Western
#5 Michigan State at #4 Miami

These four series all could be something to see, but the two that could be more interesting than any other will be Notre Dame-Michigan and Michigan State-Miami. The Irish have been playing better over the last few weeks, and Michigan has had some consistency problems this year (just like anyone else). It'll be tough for Notre Dame to win two games, but they should make Michigan work for it.

And of course we have our own series. Health could be an issue for the Spartans if Merrifield isn't 100%. But one thing MSU fans have been able to count on is this team will make the other team work for it. Miami may have swept the season series, but Michigan State was in both games. MSU lost the first game in overtime, and the second game was 1-0 going into the 3rd period before Miami blew it open.

Northern fell to 16th in the Pairwise which will suggest they are out of the NCAA tournament now. Michigan State remained in 12th after this weekend - so it still looks like MSU may need to beat Miami to assure themselves a NCAA tournament bid.

Here is the latest projection through this weekend - MSU a 3 seed out east

If you are a Spartan fan - it is simple.... Win and you are in. It won't be easy this weekend down in Oxford, but if the "hard hat wearing" Spartans show up, it should be a battle, and it is one that MSU can win.

We'll have more throughout the week as we approach the weekend series.

CCHA First Round Game 1 Recaps

#10 Alaska at #7 LSSU

 Two of the more defensive teams in the CCHA tallied 7 goals on 69 shots as the Lakers edged the Nanooks 4-3 in the first game of their best of 3 series. Alaska jumped out to a 1-0 lead on a goal from former Spartan Adam Henderson just 4:55 into the game. LSSU tallied the next three goals in the game, including two in the final three minutes of the first period, and one in the first five minutes of the second period.

Alaska did manage to make it a 3-2 game just 14 seconds into the 3rd period, but Kellan Lain responded just 46 seconds later to put LSSU up for 4-2. Alaska would add a late power play marker to get us to a 4-3 final. The Nanooks out-shot LSSU 39-30 for the game, and both teams went 1 for 4 on the power play.

Game 2 is tomorrow night in the Soo.

#11 Bowling Green at #6 Northern Michigan

It took Bowling Green just 53 seconds to plant a seed of doubt in the minds of the Wildcats, but Northern fought hard scoring a pair of third period goals to break a 2-2 tie and pull out the 4-2 victory. Bowling Green beat Northern last season in the best of three series. Northern won game one last year as well.

Bowling Green was trailing 2-1 in the second period before Adam Berkle tied it up. Andrew Cherniwchan broke the 2-2 tie just 1:27 into the 3rd period with a power play goal. Tyler Gron added the insurance marker with just over 8 minutes to go. BGSU out-shot Northern 33-26 for the game. Bowling Green was 0 for 3 with the extra man, and Northern was 1 for 2.

Game 2 is in Marquette tomorrow night.

#9 Ohio State at #8 Notre Dame

 Steven Summerhays made 33 saves to earn the shutout as Notre Dame beat Ohio State 2-0. Billy Maday scored both goals for the Irish, the first 9:08 into the game, and the second one just 2:50 into the second period. Ohio State out-shot Notre Dame 33-30 for the game. OSU was 0 for 5 on the power play and ND finished one for four.

Game 2 is in South Bend tomorrow night.

So what did we learn?

Well, getting out-shot seems to be the best recipe for winning. Though it usually stands the team with more shots means more opportunities, unless the quality shots just aren't there. The only margin that was somewhat shocking was Alaska with 39. The Nanooks aren't known for their offense, but they looked like they were throwing a lot of rubber on net.

Michigan State also moved up the PairWise into a tie for 10th place (up from a tie for 11th). Go byes!

Weekend Preview: Luck of The Irish

How does that saying go - If it wasn't for bad luck, we'd have no luck at all.

The 2011 - 2012 season hasn't exactly played out like the Irish expected. They came into the season ranked #1 in the polls, but it took all of one game to lose that ranking when they lost to defending national champion Minnesota-Duluth in their opening game. Like any good team though, they rebounded the next night and proceeded to jump out to a nice 10-2-3 start in their first 15 games.

I googled "Brian Kelly Smiles" - and this was about the best photo that came up

That's when things started to turn the other direction as Notre Dame is only 6-13-0 since that point. Coming into this weekend, Notre Dame is riding a five game losing streak, and you can point directly to their offensive production. The Irish have only scored four goals in their last five games. They've been shutout twice. Their last win was a 2-1 squeaker over last place Bowling Green.

 

Now all of a sudden things aren't as rosy for the Irish Hockey Team

 

This weekend is huge though for both teams. Notre Dame cannot actually catch Michigan State, but they certainly could knock the Spartans down a few spots. Both teams are fighting for home ice. Notre Dame currently sits in a tie for eighth place (11-12-3 CCHA, 16-15-3 overall) with Northern (Notre Dame has the tiebreaker). That is important since it is the last home ice spot in the first round. Michigan State holds the all-important fourth and final home ice spot for the CCHA quarterfinals coming into this weekend posting wins in five of their last six games (13-10-3-2 CCHA, 18-12-4 overall). All that stands between home ice and these two teams is each other. Win - and they are playing at home. Lose - and they'll need help (though MSU could still play at home - just in the first round). 

It should be noted that MSU is guaranteed a home ice series in the first round, should they fall into sixth place. MSU cannot fall further than sixth based on who plays this weekend. Notre Dame, Northern Michigan, Alaska, and Bowling Green are guaranteed to finish behind MSU. Miami or Ohio State is also guaranteed to finish behind MSU, because they play each other and both teams cannot earn enough points this weekend to pass MSU (though - each team has a chance to pass MSU, just both won't be able to). This means five teams (11th, 10th, 9th, 8th, and 7th) will finish behind MSU. This means MSU cannot finish lower than sixth. The issue will be finishing in fifth place - that will be good enough for a bye, but they'll be on the road. MSU could finish in second with a lot of help - but don't expect it. Michigan travels to last place Bowling Green. MSU would have to earn one more point than Western, four more than Michigan, and no fewer than one less point than what Miami earns to get second place. Got it?

 Oh man, I think my head hurts - why can't ND be independent in hockey too?

Did you catch all that coach?

What makes this even better, is Notre Dame could finish as high as a tie for fifth or as bad as ninth.  It gets even better when you throw the NCAA picture into this mess. Michigan State sits in 10th place in the PairWise and Notre Dame has fallen all the way to 22nd. Basically, both teams really need to win this weekend. The Irish need to win it to avoid us calling a code blue on the Irish NCAA at-large hopes, and Michigan State needs to avoid a bad weekend to fall back on the bubble - or worse - right past the bubble. 

Behind Enemy Lines:

Top Scorers:

T.J. Tynan    12 goals, 27 points  (tied w/ Krug for the lead in conference points)

Andres Lee   14 goals, 30 points

Riley Sheahan   9 goals, 24 points  (Red Wings draft pick)

Billy Maday     9 goals, 21 points

Austin Wuthrich  7 goals, 16 points

I should point out that four of these guys are not seniors. Tynan and Lee are sophomores, Wuthrich is just a freshman, and Sheahan is a junior. That makes for a bright future for the Irish, if they all come back. It'll be interesting to see who comes out on top after the weekend in conference scoring. Torey Krug has a chance, and for MSU to be successful this weekend, it'll help to see a lot of this:

All-American Candidate Torey Krug needs to show the Irish what Touchdown Jesus is really doing

In goal:

Mike Johnson   9-9-3,    2.63 GAA, .886 save %

Steven Summerhays    7-6-0, 2.93 GAA,  .887 save %

Not exactly gaudy goaltender numbers there considering ND and Jeff Jackson usually pride themselves on defense, defense, defense.

The Team Comparison:

 Offense:

Michigan State  3.09 Goals/Game (2nd CCHA)

Notre Dame  2.62 Goals/Game  (8th CCHA)

Defense:

Michigan State 2.53 Goals/Game (7th CCHA)

Notre Dame 2.82 Goals/Game (T-10th CCHA)

Power Play:

Michigan State 17.7%  (23 for 130, 7th CCHA)

Notre Dame  18.8 %  (31 for 165, 3rd CCHA)

Penalty Kill:

Michigan State 89.2 %  (116 for 130, 1st CCHA - and it's not even close)

Notre Dame   80.6%   (104 for 129, T-10th CCHA)

The second best PK in the CCHA has only killed off 85.3% of the power plays they've faced. That's a pretty large gap between first and second.

Notre Dame appears to give off to slow starts, as they have been outscored 37-22 in opening periods. They do comeback strong though holding a 36-29 edge in the second stanza. The third period is close as ND has been outscored by a 30-29 margin. Michigan State generally gets off to decent starts outscoring teams 35-29 in the opening frame, 34-26 in the middle frame, and 34-28 in the final period.

Michigan State holds a 59-38-4 all-time edge in this series, but Notre Dame holds a 24-21-7 edge in South Bend. What might be scary for MSU fans is MSU is on a 10 game winless streak against Notre Dame (0-7-3). Michigan State hasn't won in South Bend since 2006. 

Which I guess that means Michigan State is due to win in South Bend.

Both games are on TV (yay!). 8:35 pm face-off time on Friday (CBSCS) and Comcast has the 7:35 pm tilt on Saturday. 1240 AM on your radio dial Friday, 730 AM on Saturday due to the basketball game

Coach Jackson hasn't had a lot to smile about lately - all he needs is a little puck luck.

Final Thoughts:

This series is an absolute must have for both teams. That means we will probably see some great hockey this weekend. Michigan State is riding a nice little winning wave, and Notre Dame isn't. However, don't expect the Irish to simply roll over. The Irish will have the size advantage (no surprise there), and they haven't been a good match-up for Michigan State lately (thus the winless streak), but this year's Michigan State team has been a little different. Anything less than an all out effort this weekend will probably result in needing help to finish in the top four. The hockey team needs to take a page out of the basketball team's book - go into a tough environment - and pull out a pair of good wins. MSU leads Miami by two points, so State needs five to guarantee home ice (Miami would hold the head to head tiebreaker). That's a win and a shoot-out win. The only thing they can control is what they do, so there is no sense in looking up at the scoreboard.

Win, and then you won't need to worry about having any luck at all.

Game Day Part II

Michigan State is now tied for 11th in the PairWise (with Miami) after all the games last night were completed. Since Alaska is not a TUC, a loss would really damage the RPI, so tonight's game is big for MSU's NCAA hopes.

MSU right now would be matched up with Miami in the  CCHA Quarterfinals. Miami swept Michigan State in East Lansing the first weekend in January. It's tough to say who to root for tonight. If LSSU beats Western, Northern beats Michigan, and Notre Dame beats Miami (along with a MSU win), then MSU would be tied for 3rd, just 1 point behind Western for second place. MSU would still only be 3 points ahead of 5th place though. No matter what, MSU will be playing meaningful games next weekend in South Bend.

Around the media this morning....

LSJ.com: Perlini's OT goal lifts Spartans

USCHO.com Recap

Daily News Miner: Nanooks fall in OT

MSUSpartans.com recap

The NCAAs.....

After last night, Michigan State ended in a tie for 12th in the PairWise rankings, a tool that mimics the NCAA selection process. Michigan State was tied with Minnesota, but won the comparison, so MSU would be the 12th seed in the NCAA tournament (or the last #3 seed).


Based on this projection, MSU would face Boston College in St. Paul

At first glance, that is one heck of a bracket. Michigan, the top seed, would have to deal with Minnesota who would be playing a home game. Michigan State would have to face a tough Boston College team for the second time this year. Four big time programs in the same regional. That would be a tough hill to climb, but let's face it, most MSU fans would be happy just being in the tournament this year given how last season went.

Most of us thought MSU would be improved, but now the Spartans are in position to be in the top 4 of the CCHA as well as a NCAA tournament team, and as the 2007 Spartans showed - you just need to get in to win. Who would want to face MSU in the tournament at this point? The Spartans would be a very dangerous team.

So, what would it take for MSU to get there? At first glance, MSU would be in pretty good position if they earned 9 of their final 12 points, and won a series in the CCHA tournament. The assumption here is MSU would be at the Joe. The only drawback there might be that MSU has to win at least a game at the Joe (at least the 3rd place game).

It's certainly an exciting time of year to be a Spartan hockey fan. Coach Anastos and company has this team playing very well right now.